Aussie Rules Bet Types
The AFL board comes down to a handful of markets, and the most important one isn’t the match result — it’s the line, a points handicap that evens out a high-scoring, often-lopsided game. Below is every AFL bet type worth knowing, what each one settles on, and where the value actually hides. If you’re new to the code, the aussie rules how to bet guide covers the basics first.
The line — the market that matters
The line gives the favourite a points start to overcome. At minus 18.5 they must win by 19 or more; the underdog at plus 18.5 can lose by up to 18 and still pay. The handicap is the bookmaker’s read on the gap between the sides, set to make the call near 50-50. The half-point removes any tie, so the bet wins or loses cleanly. This is where most AFL money sits, because backing a short favourite to simply win rarely offers value, while reading whether they’ll cover a margin does. For the mechanics across sports, the handicap betting guide goes deeper.
Total points — reading the conditions
Total points is a bet on both teams’ combined final score, over or under a set line. The AFL scores more freely than most codes, so the total is heavily driven by conditions: a dry track and two attacking sides push it up, while wet weather, a heavy ground or a defensive grind pulls it down. Your edge is judging whether the real game runs higher or lower than the line the bookmaker set. A R100 over bet at 1.90 returns R190 if the combined score clears the line — but totals are volatile, and one runaway quarter can swing the whole bet.
The margin and the match result
The margin market asks for the winning team and the points gap, in bands — a more precise call that pays bigger odds because it’s harder to land. It’s the bet for when you fancy a specific blowout rather than just a winner.
The match result is the straight “who wins?” bet. In a mismatch the favourite is short and there’s little value; it earns its place only when an underdog is genuinely live and the price reflects more doubt than the form deserves.
| Market | Settles on | The read it rewards |
|---|---|---|
| The line | the final margin against the handicap | form, matchups and how each side is travelling |
| Total points | the combined score vs the line | conditions, venue and tempo |
| The margin | winning team and points band | a precise call on a likely blowout |
| Match result | which side wins | a live underdog the market has underrated |
The season-long outrights
Two markets run across the whole season rather than a single game:
- Premiership outright — backing a club to win the Grand Final, the AFL’s deciding match. Back it before round one for a bigger price and more uncertainty, or wait for form to settle for a shorter, safer call. Either way your stake is parked for months.
- Brownlow Medal — the season’s best-and-fairest player award, a long-range player outright for the form watchers who track individual performances week to week.
Both are futures bets: you’re tying up a stake for the season in exchange for a bigger price, so size them as money you’re happy to leave parked.
Match the market to your read
The discipline is simple — let the question you can actually answer choose the market. A firm view on a mismatch points to the line; a read on the weather and tempo points to total points; a strong fancy for one club’s whole season points to the premiership outright. Keep stakes flat, take the price you’ve judged to be value, and remember the bookmaker margin sits in every line.
You’ll find all of these live in rand at Scorebet across the AFL season. To go deeper on the foundations, start with aussie rules how to bet, or zoom out to the sports betting overview to see how the AFL fits the wider board.
Frequently asked
What is the most popular AFL bet type?
The line, a points handicap on the favourite, is the AFL's main market. Because the code is high-scoring and games are often lopsided, the match result on a short favourite offers little value, so the line is where most punters and the sharpest pricing sit. It turns a mismatch into a roughly even-money call.
What is total points betting in the AFL?
Total points is a bet on the combined final score of both teams, over or under a line the bookmaker sets. The AFL scores freely, so the total swings on the weather, the venue and the tempo of both sides. A dry track and two attacking teams pushes it up; wet weather and a defensive grind drags it down.
Should you bet the AFL premiership before the season?
You can back the premiership outright before round one for a bigger price and more uncertainty, or wait until form settles for a shorter but safer call. Your stake is parked for the whole season, so size it as money you're happy to tie up. Earlier means more reward but a longer wait and more that can go wrong.
Why does the AFL margin market pay so much more than the line?
The margin asks you to name both the winner and a points band, not just whether they cover, so you're folding several outcomes into one selection. The bookmaker prices each band with its own slice of margin, and the narrower the band the longer the odds — the bigger price is just the reward for a far harder call, not free value.
How does the AFL's six-six-six rule affect total points betting?
The centre-bounce starting positions lock players into zones, which was brought in to open the ground up and lift scoring after years of congested, low-scoring footy. If you're betting totals, the structural tilt toward more open play matters as much as the weather — a rule built to raise scores nudges the long-run baseline that the bookmaker's line is set against.